Sidik Mia and Chakwera
MCP President Lazarous Chakwera with his Vice President during the Convention in Lilongwe – Pic by Abel Ikilon

By Falles Kamanga

The report from Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) indicates that about 6,856,295 voters have registered. Segregating the data according to regions and districts and of course seteris paribas (all things constant) here is the general analysis;

Southern region has registered about  2,037,154 voters
Central region has registered about 2,915,482 voters
Eastern region has registered about 976,430 voters
Northern region has registered about 931,229 voters

Stronghold districts for specific parties considering that all the registered voters will vote for that specific party (seteris paribas)

1.Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
Mulanje=281,167
Phalombe=167,613
Thyolo=279,128
Mwana=48,325
Total= 776,233

2.UTM Party
Balaka=155,754
Neno=55,998
Ntcheu=228,579
Total=440,331

3.Malawi Congress Party (MCP)
Kasungu=325,301
Salima=170,427
Dedza=302,623
Mchinji=241,490
Ntchisi=129,980
Dowa=325,062
Total = 1,494,913

3.United Democratic Front (UDF)
Mangochi=402,163
Machinga=250,973
Total= 652,837

4.Peoples Party (PP)
Zomba= 319,294
Chiradzulu=145,674
Total=464,968

Shared districts, the ones which are likely to produce unpredictable results and they are not strongholds for specific parties

Northern region=931,229
Lilongwe=1,013,414
Blantyre=498,999
Nsanje=145,528
Chikwawa=258,968
Nkhotakota=178,606
Total= 3,026,744

Percentage and fugures each party is likely to get among the shared districts
UTM 34%=1,029,093 votes
MCP 26%=786,953 votes
DPP 21%= 635,616 votes
PP 12%= 363,209 votes
UDF 7%=211,872 votes

 

Possible expected results

Based on these analysis below are the likely results
1.MCP=1,494,913+786,953= 2,281,866 votes
2.UTM=440,331+1,029,093= 1,469,424 votes
3.DPP =776,233+635,616 = 1,411,849 votes
4.UDF = 652,837+ 211,872= 864,709 votes
5.PP =664,968+363,209= 828,177 votes

From the analysis MCP is likely to win as it’s stronghold districts have registered quite a good number if voters. Southern and northern regions are likely to be shared by most of the parties with DPP dominating in the south seconded by UTM.

UTM is likely to divide more votes in the south than the central. MCP has a quite advantage in the lower shire where it is likely to grab a considerable number of votes. DPP is likely to get more votes in the south especially in its stronghold districts.

The analysis was based on the five main parties but the figures are likely to decrease due to the presence of other parties and independent candidates which will also grab a considerable number of votes in all regions.

Since most of the parties are dominating from the south, MCP has a higher chance of winning as it’s stronghold region has considerable number of registered parties and independent candidates.

 

DisclaimerViews expressed in this article are not necessarily the views of the Publisher or the Editor of Maravi Post

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