By Falles Kamanga
The report from Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) indicates that about 6,856,295 voters have registered. Segregating the data according to regions and districts and of course seteris paribas (all things constant) here is the general analysis;
Southern region has registered about 2,037,154 voters
Central region has registered about 2,915,482 voters
Eastern region has registered about 976,430 voters
Northern region has registered about 931,229 voters
Stronghold districts for specific parties considering that all the registered voters will vote for that specific party (seteris paribas)
1.Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
3.Malawi Congress Party (MCP)
Total = 1,494,913
3.United Democratic Front (UDF)
4.Peoples Party (PP)
Shared districts, the ones which are likely to produce unpredictable results and they are not strongholds for specific parties
Percentage and fugures each party is likely to get among the shared districts
UTM 34%=1,029,093 votes
MCP 26%=786,953 votes
DPP 21%= 635,616 votes
PP 12%= 363,209 votes
UDF 7%=211,872 votes
Possible expected results
Based on these analysis below are the likely results
1.MCP=1,494,913+786,953= 2,281,866 votes
2.UTM=440,331+1,029,093= 1,469,424 votes
3.DPP =776,233+635,616 = 1,411,849 votes
4.UDF = 652,837+ 211,872= 864,709 votes
5.PP =664,968+363,209= 828,177 votes
From the analysis MCP is likely to win as it’s stronghold districts have registered quite a good number if voters. Southern and northern regions are likely to be shared by most of the parties with DPP dominating in the south seconded by UTM.
UTM is likely to divide more votes in the south than the central. MCP has a quite advantage in the lower shire where it is likely to grab a considerable number of votes. DPP is likely to get more votes in the south especially in its stronghold districts.
The analysis was based on the five main parties but the figures are likely to decrease due to the presence of other parties and independent candidates which will also grab a considerable number of votes in all regions.
Since most of the parties are dominating from the south, MCP has a higher chance of winning as it’s stronghold region has considerable number of registered parties and independent candidates.
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article are not necessarily the views of the Publisher or the Editor of Maravi Post