By Frank Kamanga
We are writing this piece knowing very well that we are just remaining with 223 days before Malawi has another president. Yes, you heard us well, only 223 days before general elections.
We are also writing this piece knowing very well that Chakwera has chosen his running mate, Hon Sidik Mia.
We will not be coaxed into joining cheap politics where people are saying that Chakwera was forced to declare Mia as his running mate at gun point following the showers of money that Chakwera has been benefiting from Mia with a promise of running mate.
However, since Chakwera has already declared Mia as his runningmate, we will intellectually and analytically comment on the choice of this runningmate in our subsequent writings; the merits and demerits.
Now, let us switch to a more interesting runningmate battle which is important to talk about at this stage because of its delicate and decisive nature as far as 2019 general elections are concerned.
Yes, your guess is very good. We are about to talk about the man whose party will never get less than 1 million in the next general elections disregarding whether other political factors are either changing or not changing .
We are talking about a man who is the head of a party that ruled this country during a time when political decisions had a lifelong impact in the lives of its beneficiaries .
Have you ever wondered why MCP can hardly be displaced from the political scene despite political environment changing or not changing? The reason is as simple as that which is applicable to the head of the party which is the subject matter in this discussion .
Ladies and gentlemen, we shouldn’t assault your reasoning, We are talking about Hon Atupele Muluzi here. As we are talking now, Hon Muluzi already has 1 million voters who will never read this post but they will vote for him. This is not solely based on the fact that eastern region has registered more than 1 million voters alone but there are other factors which we will share in next paragraphs.
Any party (DPP, MCP, UTM) that makes Atupele Muluzi their runningmate will form the next government. It is as simple as that and let the aforementioned political parties ignore this analysis at their own risk .
Some people argue that Atupele is now weaker than he was in 2014, therefore he can’t get more than what he got in 2014 if elections are to be done now. Without wasting time in qualifying the word “weaker ” as used by them.
We would like to argue that this assertion is misplaced because in 2014 we had 2 big opposition parties in form of DPP and UDF from southern region that competed against a small seemingly ruling party that had no strong base in Southern region, People’s Party (PP).
This made southerners to be devided in terms of their choice of candidate with PP also getting it’s share from southern region.
DPP had an upper hand because of Bingus legacy which was fresh in peoples mind and this made Peter more attractive than Atupele and that’s what reduced UDF vote.
But in 2019 Bingu factor will not play any role and Peter will have to win by his own making. This will arguably help Atupele to get a good share of southern vote this time around more especially that the youth vote is also a deciding factor in 2019.
This means that Atupele is likely to get more than the basic 1 million votes which this piece is advancing and this can help any political party that partners with him.
The southern region vote factor is also strengthened by the fact that some DPP fans who agree with the age factor of Peter Mutharika but can’t go for Chilima because of his central region vote factor, will go for Atupele as an alternative.
This general elections decisive factor has been tried and tested for the past 20+ years and we can ignore it at our own will.
However, there is a more revolutionary pair which every political party worth the salt should be afraid of. The Chilima and Atupele pair is a youth quake that can cross the 2019 bridge even before reaching there. The 54% youthful voters who have been recorded this year should not be taken casually. It is only a matter of either Chilima or Atupele trigger the discussion as soon as yesterday and leave Chakwera and Peter wanting .
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article are not necessarily the views of the Publisher or the Editor of Maravi Post
Who comes first gets everything and who comes second gets nothing; 2019 is do or die.
In our next piece we will explain more about other factors that Make Atupele Muluzi the deciding factor for the next year’s general elections but we can confidently conclude that DPP stands to loose a lot than any other political party if they ignore Atupele Muluzi on the choice of running mate because even if things remain as they are that chakwera stands with Mia, Chilima stands on UTM, atupele stands alone on UDF ticket and DPP ignores Muluzi, the mostly likely to win the elections is MCP which has demonstrated over years that, unlike DPP and UDF, they can hardly share their political base with anyone.