By Burnett Munthali
As Malawi gears up for the highly anticipated tripartite elections slated for 16 September 2025, the political environment is growing tense and uncertain. At the center of the contest are two familiar faces: the incumbent President Lazarus McCarthy Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and former President Arthur Peter Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). These two veteran politicians represent not only competing political ideologies but also divergent visions for Malawi’s future. While Chakwera seeks a renewed mandate to continue his reform agenda, Mutharika returns from retirement to challenge what he and his supporters describe as failed leadership.
This analysis explores the electoral prospects of both leaders, considering the political, economic, and social dynamics that are shaping voter sentiment in 2025.
Background: Two titans of Malawian politics
Chakwera, a former church leader turned politician, won the 2020 presidential re-run through the Tonse Alliance, a coalition that united nine opposition parties to defeat Mutharika’s DPP following the nullification of the 2019 elections. His administration promised a “New Malawi,” focused on ending corruption, improving governance, and uplifting the economy.
However, nearly five years into his term, Chakwera’s government has struggled to deliver on many of these promises. Malawi’s economy is still reeling from inflation, persistent unemployment, a depreciating currency, and external shocks like the El Niño drought and COVID-19 aftermath. Moreover, allegations of corruption and inefficiencies have tarnished the MCP-led administration, leading to growing public discontent.
Mutharika served as Malawi’s President from 2014 to 2020. Though his term ended controversially following the 2019 election annulment, his support base—especially in the Southern Region—remains robust. His re-entry into frontline politics, despite his age (84), has energized the DPP, which is now positioning itself as the vehicle of restoration and experience. Mutharika is campaigning on a platform of economic stability, law and order, and reintroducing what he calls “tested leadership.”
One of the key factors likely to influence the 2025 elections is the disintegration of the Tonse Alliance. Initially celebrated as a symbol of unity, the alliance has crumbled under internal disagreements, unmet expectations, and most notably, the tragic death of Vice President Dr. Saulos Chilima in 2024. Chilima’s United Transformation Movement (UTM) was a cornerstone of the alliance, and his absence has left a vacuum that Chakwera has struggled to fill.
With the alliance’s fragmentation, MCP now finds itself standing alone or seeking new alliances. The loss of political backing from former allies like UTM, People’s Party (PP), and others significantly weakens Chakwera’s re-election prospects.
Malawi’s economic challenges are proving to be Chakwera’s biggest liability. The local currency, the kwacha, continues to fall in value, pushing up the cost of living. Basic commodities are unaffordable for many, fuel shortages are common, and access to forex is limited. While Chakwera’s government has engaged the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international partners, the reforms are slow to bear fruit and are perceived as benefiting elites.
Conversely, Mutharika is capitalizing on this discontent, pointing to his past achievements in infrastructure development, lower inflation, and more predictable fuel and forex supplies. Whether or not his claims are accurate, the public perception that “things were better under APM” is gaining traction, especially in rural and urban poor communities.
Malawi’s politics remain deeply influenced by regional loyalties. Chakwera enjoys strong support in the Central Region, particularly Lilongwe, while Mutharika dominates in the Southern Region. The North remains unpredictable. In 2020, the North largely voted for the Tonse Alliance due to Chilima’s influence and alliance dynamics. However, with Chilima’s UTM no longer a major player, the Northern vote is now up for grabs.
If Mutharika can successfully forge an alliance with regional kingmakers in the North or the remnants of UTM, he could gain a significant advantage. Meanwhile, Chakwera’s MCP needs to expand its reach beyond the Central Region, which may prove difficult amid widespread dissatisfaction.
A recent opinion poll conducted by the Public Affairs Committee (PAC) and reported by local media in early 2025 gave Peter Mutharika a commanding 62% support rate, with Chakwera trailing far behind at 10%. While such figures must be interpreted cautiously due to sample limitations and timing, they reflect a significant shift in public mood.
The poll suggests that the electorate may be leaning toward change, driven more by economic frustrations and unmet expectations than by ideology or party loyalty.
It is worth noting that questions remain around the eligibility of Mutharika to run for office, with some legal analysts citing the constitutional two-term limit. However, the DPP argues that since the 2019 election was annulled and the subsequent 2020 win by Chakwera was considered a re-run, Mutharika’s first term stands uncontested. The courts may have to weigh in, but as it stands, Mutharika is the official DPP presidential candidate.
Furthermore, the Electoral Commission’s credibility will be closely watched, especially following its overhaul in 2020. Transparency, timely delivery of voter materials, and efficient tallying will be crucial in preventing post-election unrest.
Nearly 60% of Malawi’s population is under 25, and their role in the 2025 elections cannot be overstated. Youths are highly active on social media platforms such as Facebook, TikTok, and X (formerly Twitter), where narratives about leadership, governance, and corruption are hotly debated. Both candidates are attempting to win over young voters, with Chakwera promising increased youth empowerment initiatives, and Mutharika emphasizing job creation through agriculture, mining, and private sector growth.
However, the majority of young voters appear disillusioned with both traditional parties and may either abstain or throw their support behind independent candidates or newer political movements, should they emerge with viable platforms.
As it stands, Peter Mutharika appears to be leading the race to return to State House. He has a united party, strong regional support, and is riding on a wave of public discontent with the current administration. His age and past governance criticisms are being overlooked by a segment of voters yearning for stability and economic normalcy.
Lazarus Chakwera, on the other hand, faces a steep uphill battle. Without the Tonse Alliance, and amid widespread criticism over economic management and unmet promises, his re-election prospects look bleak unless there is a sudden and substantial shift in public sentiment or a new alliance that revitalizes his candidacy.
Conclusion
The 2025 elections will be a defining moment for Malawi’s democracy. Whether voters choose continuity or change will depend on how effectively each candidate addresses the pressing economic and social issues facing the nation. While Peter Mutharika currently holds the advantage, the election outcome is not guaranteed. Political dynamics can shift rapidly, and the final months of the campaign will be critical.
As Malawians prepare to vote, they carry the weighty responsibility of choosing a leader who can guide the nation through its current crises and toward a more hopeful future.