By Burnett Munthali
SAN FRANCISCO-(MaraviPost)- California voters turned out on Tuesday night for a gubernatorial primary unlike any the state has seen in decades, with the race to replace term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom drawing national attention.
Polls closed at 8 p.m. across the state, and early returns quickly placed former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and former Fox News host Steve Hilton at the top of a crowded field.
Prediction markets, which have gained influence alongside traditional polling, showed a clear advantage for Becerra and Hilton to advance to the November general election.
Billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, once considered a frontrunner, saw his odds fall sharply from 33 percent to 16 percent as votes were counted.
The markets also pointed to State Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan leading the contest to replace Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi in California’s 11th Congressional District.
Analysts note that while betting platforms are vulnerable to manipulation, they have repeatedly forecast tight races with striking accuracy in the hours after polls close.
A similar pattern played out in Texas earlier this year, when markets correctly called James Talarico’s narrow Senate primary win well before official results were confirmed.
California’s slow vote-counting system, however, means final outcomes may take days or weeks as mail-in ballots continue to be processed.
In San Francisco, Mayor Daniel Lurie celebrated strong results for his endorsed candidates, including Supervisor Stephen Sherrill’s decisive victory in District 2.
Sherrill, a moderate ally of Lurie, thanked voters and credited the mayor’s leadership for renewed confidence in city government.
He pledged to return to work on housing production, public safety and affordable childcare after what he joked might be a short nap.
The governor’s race saw several high-profile candidates exit early, with former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa conceding less than 30 minutes after polls closed.
Former Representative Katie Porter also conceded after her support collapsed following viral videos that drew scrutiny to her temperament.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, backed by billionaire donors, failed to gain traction and admitted defeat with about half the vote counted.
Steyer urged patience from supporters gathered at San Francisco’s Regency Ballroom, insisting that every ballot should be counted before conclusions are drawn.
He framed his campaign as a challenge to corporate power, even as early results showed him trailing Becerra and Hilton by a wide margin.
San Francisco voters also backed Proposition A, a 535 million dollar earthquake safety bond supported by Lurie and Pelosi, which will fund seismic upgrades without raising taxes.
The city rejected Proposition C, a business tax relief measure, while Proposition D, the union-backed “Overpaid CEO Tax,” remained too close to call.
The results suggest San Franciscans favor targeted infrastructure spending but remain cautious about new taxes on business during a period of budget pressure.
Across the state, turnout appeared lower than in 2022, but political analysts expect final participation to reach between 37 and 40 percent of California’s 23 million registered voters.
With Becerra and Hilton positioned to advance, the November election is set to become a stark contest between Democratic continuity and Republican calls to dismantle what Hilton terms California’s “nanny state.”
For now, California waits as election workers count ballots and the nation watches how this primary will reshape the country’s most populous state.
