By Mathews Malata Jr.
Malawi needs over MK282 billion (US$ 370.5 million) to recover from the disaster-induced devastation caused by Cyclone Idai early March this year, a Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA_ report has shown. The report also puts the cost of the damage and losses at over MK169 billion (US$ 220.2).
The effects are also expected to slow down economic growth having induced a production loss of MK7 billion (US$ 9.96 million) which is an equivalent of 0.13 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
In this year’s disasters an estimated 975,000 people were affected, with 86,976 displaced, 60 killed and 672 injured.
While the World Bank has already committed MK92 billion (US$ 121 million) towards recovery, reconstruction and the most vulnerable affected by the floods and more development partners are expected to follow suit, a policy analyst William Chadza of Center for Environmental Policy and Advocacy (CEPA) has described the figures as outrageous.
Said Chadza: “ Figures seem to be outrageous but perhaps they reflect the situation on the ground. Not sure if as a country we can be able to mobilize such enormous resources. Perhaps we could bite the cake in pieces through prioritization”.
The assessment was done in all the affected 15 districts and 2 cities where it emerged that the housing sector was the most hit with over 288, 000 houses totally destroyed or damaged.
The total cost of physical assets destroyed stands at MK120 billion (US$ 157 million) representing 72 percent of the total effects while loss accounts for MK47 billion (US$62.5 million) which is 28% of the total effects.
Reads the report : “In terms of a sectoral breakdown, the largest proportion of the effects were on the social sector MK100 billion (US$130.3 million, 59 percent); followed by infrastructure MK38 billion (US$51.5 million, 23 percent); and then the productive sector sector MK21 billion (US$28.4 million, 17 percent)”.
“The disaster effect was highest in the Social Sector whereby the Housing Sub-sector proportionately suffered the most damage followed by the Education and Health Sub-sectors. In some areas, a significant proportion of the population could not access social services in the post-disaster period due to extensive damage to roads and drainage structures.
“The floods washed away extensive sections of infrastructure (roads, bridges, power supply, and irrigation and water supply equipment, intake structures, conveyance and distribution systems) in the affected districts and cities making it the second affected sector” reads the report.
The extent of damage reflects badly on Malawi’s efforts in building resilient societies and casts doubts if the country will achieve some disaster risk reduction commitments made on the global scene.
Target four of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) which Malawi is a party to encourages UN member states to substantially reduce disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic services.
Its also advocates the reduction of disaster deaths, the number of people affected and economic losses.
Chadza has since warned that if the trend continues, the country will hardly attain critical sustainable development goals.
“Largely Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) should enable us effectively localise SDGs, provide a vehicle for the unfinished business of MDGs and also domesticate the Sendai Framework”, said Chadza.
On the economic front, Capitol hill will have to play its cards safe to balance the books with the report projecting a significant slow down of the economy.
“Real GDP growth is estimated to slow down by 0.1 percentage points in 2019, with projected growth having been reduced from 5.0 percent before the floods to 4.9 percent. This impact is driven by loss to the agriculture, construction, electricity, and water, wholesale and retail trade, transport and accommodation and food services sectors.
“As a percentage of GDP, the current account deficit is expected to slightly widen due to the impact of the floods, with exports and imports responding to the effects of the disaster during the year ” the report further reads.
The PDNA also points out the inflow of aid is likely to have a positive effect on the financial account but warns the expenditures on relief and post floods recovery is likely to exert additional pressure on the fiscal position.
In order to come out of the vicious circle, Chadza has tipped the government to seriously invest in risk reduction programs as opposed to response and ensure coordination and pro-activeness in policy implementation.
Chadza said: “ We need to take DRR as a process and integrate it into the ongoing economic development of the country. At the moment DRR issues seem to be event based.
“We also need to implement the various policy measures in the National Disaster Risk Management Policy (NDRM) and National Resilience Strategy (NRS). These need to be implemented as part of ongoing programmes. While these would not curtail disasters, but in the long term they would lessen the impact of disasters hence lesser resources would be required for recovery in future”.
The report has since recommended new thinking and reforms in the way DRR programs are implemented across sectors. It also recommends the enforcement of building standards as a way of building back better.
The report reads: “ It is therefore essential to develop effective tools to build back better. These tools include systems and measures to enforce compliance with construction standards; to disseminate safer guidelines for the construction of schools and housing at the grassroots level; to implement a comprehensive, nationally-owned hazard mapping and zoning system; and to implement effective contact management.
“In addition, it is necessary to build resilience and to foster diversification in the agriculture sector to ensure resilient and diversified climate-smart agriculture to generate higher levels of sustainable income for the poor households that are most severely affected by the increasingly frequent natural and other shocks affecting Malawi”.
The extent of the March disaster prompted President Peter Mutharika to declare 13 districts areas of disaster. The 15 affected districts were Balaka, Blantyre, Chikwawa, Chiradzulu, Machinga, Mangochi, Mulanje, Mwanza, Neno, Nsanje, Phalombe, Thyolo, Zomba, Dedza and Ntcheu. The affected cities were Zomba and Blantyre.
The 2015 post-disaster needs assessment pegged the total damage and loss at US$335 million while the total cost of recovery and reconstruction was estimated to be around US$494 million.An estimated 1,101,364 people were affected, 230,000 displaced, 106 killed and 172 reportedly missing.
