By Lovemore Lubinda
Zambia’s main political camps are both projecting victory as vote counting continues, setting up a tense wait for official results from the Electoral Commission of Zambia.
The United Party for National Development, which backs President Hakainde Hichilema, said early indications from tallying centres were positive for the incumbent.
In a statement issued Thursday, UPND National Management Committee member Mulambo Haimbe said turnout appeared strong in the party’s traditional bases of Southern, Western and North-Western provinces, with a favorable picture also emerging in Central Province and signs of gains in parts of Northern Province.
Haimbe was careful to distinguish between trends and official outcomes. He noted that under Zambian law only ECZ can declare presidential results, and that the UPND would not make any such declaration itself.
He urged all parties and supporters to allow the commission to complete its work without interference.
The party also pushed back against unverified claims of victory circulating online and in some media spaces. Haimbe said such assertions lacked data and methodology, and risked undermining confidence in the process.
He pointed out that every party had agents at polling stations who signed the official result forms, and that the law provides clear channels for tabulation and for resolving disputes.
Beyond the numbers, Haimbe framed the election as a democratic success. He said campaigning had been open, that observers had described the process as peaceful and orderly, and that issues which arose were addressed quickly.
He contrasted this year’s environment with 2021, when the then-opposition leader was arrested multiple times, some media outlets were closed, and internet access was cut on polling day. None of that occurred this week, he said, calling it a credit to voters and to Zambia’s institutions.
Apparently, the opposition is sending a very different message. Makebi Zulu, running mate to National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity presidential candidate Brian Mundubile, posted a short note to supporters on Friday morning urging them to stay at constituency and district tally centres.
“Let’s continue to man the tallying centres. This is our victory, let’s protect it. We’ve got it,” Zulu wrote.
NRPUP is leading the TONSE alliance that is challenging Hichilema.
Party officials say their priority is to ensure that figures recorded at polling stations are accurately reflected when results are consolidated. In Zambia, counting begins at each polling station immediately after voting ends, with presiding officers announcing totals on the spot.
Those results are then sent to constituency centres for verification and summation before a returning officer makes a declaration. ECZ only announces results after that constituency-level step.
That structure puts party agents at the center of the process. Their job is to witness counts, sign result forms known as GEN 20s, and track transmissions to prevent changes. Zulu’s call is consistent with standard practice in closely contested Zambian elections.
Provisional figures compiled from signed forms and local media reports show why both sides feel confident. Mundubile appears to be doing well in the urban Copperbelt and in parts of Luapula, Northern and Eastern provinces, areas that previously delivered big votes for the former ruling Patriotic Front. One provisional count from Kalulushi after 21 stations put him about 1,200 votes ahead.
Hichilema, meanwhile, is running up very large margins in Southern, Western and North-Western provinces. Stations in Dundumwezi, Kalomo South, Sioma and parts of North-Western have returned totals where he leads by hundreds of votes to single digits for Mundubile.
A reported constituency tally from Mwinilunga West had Hichilema around 27,000 to just over 200, though that still awaits ECZ confirmation. The president is also picking up votes in places once considered difficult for UPND.
ECZ Chief Electoral Officer Brown Kasaro told journalists at the National Results Centre in Lusaka just before midnight that the commission would give an update on results received around mid-morning.
He said no official announcements would be made overnight and reiterated the constitutional requirement to declare the presidential winner within 72 hours.
Kasaro explained that counting is slow because Zambians voted in four elections at once. On average it takes about six hours to complete at a polling station. Results were expected to continue coming in through the night.
Political analysts stress that Zambia elects its president on a national vote total, not by provinces won. That means margin size is decisive. A candidate can carry several regions by narrow gaps and still lose if the opponent produces overwhelming totals in fewer areas and also collects a meaningful share of votes in hostile territory.
With 8.7 million registered voters and counting underway in all 220 constituencies, the country is now in the phase that often tests public trust: the gap between local announcements and the commission’s formal declarations.
For now, both UPND and NRPUP are telling supporters to remain calm and to let ECZ finish collating and verifying. Whether Zulu’s confidence or Haimbe’s cautious optimism proves closer to the final tally will depend on what the commission releases in the next 24 hours.
