By Falles Kamanga
The report from Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) indicates that about 6,856,295 voters have registered. Segregating the data according to regions and districts and of course seteris paribas (all things constant) here is the general analysis;
Southern region has registered about 2,037,154 voters
Central region has registered about 2,915,482 voters
Eastern region has registered about 976,430 voters
Northern region has registered about 931,229 voters
Stronghold districts for specific parties considering that all the registered voters will vote for that specific party (seteris paribas)
1.Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
Mulanje=281,167
Phalombe=167,613
Thyolo=279,128
Mwana=48,325
Total= 776,233
2.UTM Party
Balaka=155,754
Neno=55,998
Ntcheu=228,579
Total=440,331
3.Malawi Congress Party (MCP)
Kasungu=325,301
Salima=170,427
Dedza=302,623
Mchinji=241,490
Ntchisi=129,980
Dowa=325,062
Total = 1,494,913
3.United Democratic Front (UDF)
Mangochi=402,163
Machinga=250,973
Total= 652,837
4.Peoples Party (PP)
Zomba= 319,294
Chiradzulu=145,674
Total=464,968
Shared districts, the ones which are likely to produce unpredictable results and they are not strongholds for specific parties
Northern region=931,229
Lilongwe=1,013,414
Blantyre=498,999
Nsanje=145,528
Chikwawa=258,968
Nkhotakota=178,606
Total= 3,026,744
Percentage and fugures each party is likely to get among the shared districts
UTM 34%=1,029,093 votes
MCP 26%=786,953 votes
DPP 21%= 635,616 votes
PP 12%= 363,209 votes
UDF 7%=211,872 votes
Possible expected results
Based on these analysis below are the likely results
1.MCP=1,494,913+786,953= 2,281,866 votes
2.UTM=440,331+1,029,093= 1,469,424 votes
3.DPP =776,233+635,616 = 1,411,849 votes
4.UDF = 652,837+ 211,872= 864,709 votes
5.PP =664,968+363,209= 828,177 votes
From the analysis MCP is likely to win as it’s stronghold districts have registered quite a good number if voters. Southern and northern regions are likely to be shared by most of the parties with DPP dominating in the south seconded by UTM.
UTM is likely to divide more votes in the south than the central. MCP has a quite advantage in the lower shire where it is likely to grab a considerable number of votes. DPP is likely to get more votes in the south especially in its stronghold districts.
The analysis was based on the five main parties but the figures are likely to decrease due to the presence of other parties and independent candidates which will also grab a considerable number of votes in all regions.
Since most of the parties are dominating from the south, MCP has a higher chance of winning as it’s stronghold region has considerable number of registered parties and independent candidates.
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article are not necessarily the views of the Publisher or the Editor of Maravi Post
By Owen Khamula
Ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) says its torch bearer in the highly contentious 2019 tripartite elections will win the polls with a wide margin.
DPP spokesperson Nicholas Dausi said President Peter Mutharika has a robust campaign as well as infrastructural development which puts him at an advantage than his political opponents.
“The President has achieved tremendous development in health, education and there is stability of the kwacha. This has resulted in donor confidence,” said Dausi.
He said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said Malawi has over performed on fiscal discipline under Mutharika.
The Institute of Public Opinion and Research (Ipor) in its report on the political environment in Malawi in the run-up to the 2019 elections said Mutharika is likely to win the May 21 presidential elections,
A new country report for Malawi released by London-based Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) has also suggested Mutharika may win.
Mutharika’s edge is attributed mainly to the demographic advantage that the Southern Region has over other regions.
This is all academic. The Winner is DPP and it will not even be close
Total nonsense. How do you determine percentages for the shared districts? Why does UTM have higher percentage in the shared districts? Do you know Lilongwe is a mixed bag, especially the city? You will be disappointed come May 21.
The statistics are very far from truth with a margin error of +41%. I will use your data to analze as follows:
MCP= 2,281,866
DPP+UDF= 2,276,558
UTM+PP+AFORD= 2,297,601
According to your statistics with alliances on the table will be as follows:
UTM = 1
MCP = 2
DPP= 3
Errors in your analysis;
1. You can not give Chiradzulu to PP this is serious anomaly.
2. You can not give PP Zomba this is serious anomaly check the past records of general elections.
3 From shared districts where is UTM getting over a Million votes? UTM has been overrated, dont forget that it has never tested general elections.
4. You can not give UTM Balaka that is a serious anomaly for Balaka is for UDF.
If the above anomalies are corrected, you will see that DPP+UDF alliance will have upper hand.
5his is true DPP will win hands down