Tag Archives: 2025 Malawi’s General Elections

Road to 2025: Opposition DPP losing popularity as MCP gains ground cover…See analysis

By Deus Chikalaza

This graph is a simplistic way of analyzing and interpreting elections data for the given period. The impact of alliances, electoral systems, demographics, candidates and other variables have not been given special attention as would be expected. However, the results pattern itself is a product of the interaction of all those variables over the given period. Hence the analysis and interpretation of the pattern is reliable to determine strength of DPP and MCP and their likely performance in the 2025 Elections.

DPP did not actually contest in 2004. However, Bingu wa Mutharika was still the Candidate for 2004 and 2009. Hence, the graph starts with 2004 as the baseline to show the sharp rise and shocking fall of DPP between 2004 and 2014.

BACKGROUND

On 10 February 2020, I plotted and shared this same Graph to advise that DPP was a party that was declining while MCP was a steady and rising party. I concluded by predicting that in any election after 2019, MCP candidate was going to win because the MCP’ blue line in the graph was definitely going to cross the DPP line.

Now, I have plotted the graph again to give you further analysis, interpretation and prediction to prepare both the MCP and DPP for the 2025 Elections.

ANALYSIS OF RESULTS: REFER TO THE GRAPH

  • In 2009: DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) dominated the election with 66.17% of the vote, showcasing a strong hold on the electorate. In contrast, MCP (Malawi Congress Party) received 30.49%, indicating a weaker position. DPP got two times the votes of MCP which came second in that election.
  • 2014: DPP saw a dramatic decline in its voter share, dropping to 36.42%. DPP lost 50% of its voter share though the party won the elections. This sharp decrease reflected voter dissatisfaction and significant political shifts. Though MCP lost again, the party’s voter share did not decrease much. It only slightly dropped to 27.80% suggesting relative stability for the party.
  • 2019: The results showed a narrowing gap between the two parties. Though DPP won the elections again, it only slightly increased its share with just about 2% points from 36.42% to 38.57%, while MCP saw a significant rise of 8% points to 35.41%. This shows that MCP grew in strength and performed better than DPP between 2014 and 2019 despite losing elections.
  • 2020: MCP experienced a remarkable surge, obtaining 59.34% of the votes. While the historic win for MCP was influenced by the Tonse Alliance especially UTM votes and also the change in the electoral laws, it also indicates a major shift in voter preference towards MCP and further weakening of DPP if we look back at 2009 where DPP alone could get more than the 59.34% combined votes of Tonse Alliance.

The weakening of DPP is further confirmed by the fact that it also got into an alliance with UDF but only realized a marginal increase of around 1% point from 38.57% to 39.92%.

INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS

  • DPP: The shocking sharp decline from 2009 to 2014 gave DPP a fatal wound that the party has not recovered from until today and there is no any sign of recovery any time soon. DPP’s graph from 2014 shows more of a straight line meaning that the party has not been growing despite winning elections with narrow escapes.
  • MCP: The steady performance from 2009 to 2019, followed by a dramatic increase in 2020, suggests effective party strategies, growing voter support, unwavering loyal voter support, and possibly successful campaign efforts. The leap in 2020, despite the alliance votes, still speak more about MCP ability to take advantage of DPP’s decline.

PREDICTION FOR 2025 ELECTIONS

  • MCP: Given the substantial increase in voter support MCP appears to be on a strong upward trajectory. This trend is likely to continue and MCP could solidify its dominance in the 2025 elections.

However, MCP needs to consider strategic alliance partnerships to avoid gambling with the 50% +1 electoral system. MCP must also address keys issues of leadership, governance and socio-economic woes affecting Malawians, and complete some flagship infrastructure development for campaign purposes.

  • DPP: To regain its leading position, DPP will need to analyze the factors behind its decline and address them effectively. One of the issues to seriously consider is the Party’s leadership. Peter Mutharika (APM) took over the party from Bingu at 66% and dropped it to 36%. For close to 10years, APM has failed to push DPP back to its former might.

The change for a better DPP starts with APM changing himself. Other strategies, could include revitalizing the party’s image, addressing voter concerns, and developing policies that resonate with the electorate across the regional and tribal divides. Without significant changes, DPP may struggle to beat MCP especially now that MCP is government.

All other factors constant, that graph shows DPP will lose the 2025 elections.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article are those of the author not necessarily of The Maravi Post or Editor

Road to 2025 polls: Will Atupele Muluzi become a game changer?

An exciting debate has sparked over remarks made by Atupele Muluzi on his Facebook page that Malawians should stop playing a blame game but instead, they should strive to offer solutions to the economic mess our country is experiencing.

Truth be told, the boat we are traveling in is sinking putting the lives of innocent Malawians at stake. Unfortunately, our boat driver, Dr. Lazarus Chakwera seems to be clueless on how to address the quandary at hand.

Will it assist matters if we start blaming our driver for the mismanaging funds that could have gone a long way towards the servicing of the sinking boat?

The message from Atupele Muluzi is that we should join hands to find lasting solutions to the economic meltdown or we will all sink together with our brilliant ideas wrapped in our cranium.

However, some people have nurtured another school of thought that Atupele’s remarks smack of the impending electoral alliance between the United Democratic Front  (UDF) and the Malawi Congress Party (MCP).

For sure, people are entitled to their opinions for in politics there are no permanent enemies.

However, the one million dollar question that persistently lingers is, can Atupele Muluzi be a game changer in the 2025 General elections? Can he be an asset or a liability in any electoral alliance?

To objectively answer such pertinent questions, an attempt is made to delve into the positive and gloomy side of Atupele Muluzi.

The positive side of Atupele Muluzi

First, love it or hate it. Atupele has the added advantage of being a son to a political engineer, Dr. Bakili Muluzi, the former President of the Republic of Malawi.

Atupele grew up in an environment where the source of living is politics. He was exposed to politics at a tender age. I once saw a photograph when Bakili Muluzi was introducing his son, Atupele at State House to President Dr. Hastings Kamuzu Banda.

Such privileged happenstances could have motivated Atupele to venture into active politics.

Examples are numerous that substantiate that some people have pursued the careers of their relatives such as the Bush family in the USA, Kenyattas in Kenya, Katsongas, Chihanas, and Mutharika in Malawi.

Second, Atupele practices civilized politics of no insults and castigations. It is not Atupele’s line of politics to stage a political rally with the sole purpose of castigating his political opponents.

There was a time when Atupele Muluzi was castigated left, right, and centre for using a presidential motorcade during the campaign period in the run-up to the 2020 fresh presidential elections.

Atupele responded by challenging them that they were supposed to calculate all the motorcade expenses and he was ready to foot the bill. What a challenge!! Guess what!! There was total silence thereafter.

Third, many allegations have tried to smear Atupele with corruption scandals. However, Atupele has come out clean.

Fourth, in all the portfolios of being a cabinet minister, there is a piece of strong evidence that Aupele emerged to be an above-average performer.

Fifth, Atupele stunned the majority of Malawians when he came of out his cocoon to agitate for an agenda for change during Bingu wa Mutharika’s regime. His activism inspired the youth because it gave them hope that a better Malawi would be possible even with a young leader.

Six, watching the 2019 presidential debate, one is prompted to conclude that Atupele is a good debater.

He did not debate for the sake of it all because most of his arguments have been fulfilled.

During the debate session, Atupele referred to Chakwera as an inexperienced driver who would not take Malawians to the promised land of Canaan.

Indeed two years down the line of Chakwera’s rule, things are worse. Foreign debt has trebled to 10 trillion Kwacha. Our local  Kwacha is tumbling every day. The inflation rate is high. Corruption has become an accepted diabolical incident.

In his argument, Atupele forewarned Chakwera of overpromising Malawians and he predicted that such unrealistic promises would not be fulfilled.

Two years after Chakwera’s rule, many Malawians are sleeping on empty stomachs due to a lack of food. The promise of three meals a day has proved to be a scam. Instead of creating one million jobs, many Malawians were retrenched and they remain jobless right now.

Seven, Atupele started exuding leadership skills at a tender age. He was once a head boy at a London-based school. His oratory skills have assisted him to competently discharge his duties at all levels.

Eight, it is widely accepted that Atupele is one of the youngest politicians who have assumed lucrative positions including being the running mate to Prof. Peter Mutharika in the 2020  fresh presidential elections.

Being young and energetic, the sky is the limit for  Atupele as far as political accomplishments are concerned.

Nine, besides being a politician, Atupele is a seasoned entrepreneur. Of late, Atupele has shown interest in global and regional business enterprises that can offer market opportunities for Malawian agricultural produce. This is why he claimed that he had to take a break from active politics to pursue a business course in China.

Last but not least, it is not an understatement to conclude that Atupele is tolerant and flexible enough to work with any politician. He worked with Joyce Banda and Prof. Peter Mutharika, what can prevent him from working with Dr. Lazarus Chakwera as well?

The gloomy side of Atupele Muluzi

By the philosophy of dualism, if Atupele has strengths then he must have some weaknesses of some kind too.

First, Atupele is on record as having made the infantile, irrational, and emotional decision to resign from the position of the party’s president for no reasonable reason.

Members of UDF entrusted him with the position at an elective convention. It was therefore a breach of trust when Atupele threw the towel.

Realistically, one would not relinquish an elected position in favor of a short course of 3 months only.

It smacks of lack of seriousness when Atupele wants to reclaim his position now citing lame excuses like he was requested by some members to do so.

Second, some Malawians are of the view that Atupele is the direct beneficiary of his father’s looting of government resources.

Malawians still recall that Dr. Bakili Muluzi was answering charges of diverting government funds to his personal bank account to the tune of MK1.87 billion. However, President Chakwera thought it wise to discontinue the case.

The counterargument is, how can a son be accused of sins committed by his father? Is this fair justice?

Third, Atupele lost his parliamentary seat simply because he abandoned his constituency in favour of a cabinet ministerial position.

Fourth, under the presidency of Atupele Muluzi, UDF has been losing popularity. For instance, there were 85 UDF members of parliament (MPs) when Dr. Bakili Muluzi won the presidential elections in 1994. Currently, UDF has only 10 MPs in the National Assembly with Atupele being outside the house since he lost his parliamentary seat.

Five, despite the claims that Atupele Muluzi earned his Bachelor’s degree in law, there is no evidence that he once practiced law whether in the government or private sector.

Six, as an extension of the previous point, many Malawians are skeptical whether Atupele completed his studies. Unfortunately, Atupele has not cleared such skepticism among his voters.

Seven, Atupele Muluzi has been accused by some UDF members of lacking openness and transparency when it comes to working with the then-ruling DPP party.

Atupele was the only cabinet minister from UDF during the reign of Prof. Peter Mutharika.

Eight, Atupele seems to be a victim of circumstances by being  Bakili’s son.

There are fears that Bakili Muluzi may be calling the shots behind the hood through Atupele as a pawn.

Some people believe that the appointment of  Atupele Muluzi into cabinet positions during both Peter Mutharika’s and Joyce Banda’s regimes was politically engineered by Dr. Bakili Muluzi.

Many people have started connecting the dots. Just soon after President Chakwera pardoned Bakili Muluzi from being prosecuted, Atupele is now lenient in criticizing the Chakwera government.

Nine, the rise of Atupele Muluzi to be Prof Peter Mutharika’s running mate in the 2020 fresh presidential election was a great stepping stone to his political career.

Unfortunately, Prof. Peter Mutharika lost the 2020 presidential election. This has disadvantaged Atupele because his relevance in politics is in a tight corner bearing in mind that he is no longer a member of parliament in the National Assembly.

Ten, many political analysts have described Atupele as a mere political opportunist.

When Atupele foresaw the impending loss of Joyce Banda in 2014, he abruptly resigned from a cabinet ministerial position only to accept another position later from Prof. Peter Mutharika.

Now it is alleged that he is putting his fingers crossed to partner with the mighty Malawi Congress Party (MCP). Let us wait and see.

In conclusion, whether Atupele will become a game changer in Malawi’s political scene in 2026 will depend upon a multiplicity of factors such as how he will capitalize his strengths while overshadowing his weaknesses.

The changing political dynamics and voter aspirations in Malawi may also play an important role in this arena.

Of possible electoral alliances in 2025 Malawi’s General Elections

The 50% + 1 electoral system will force many political parties to enter into electoral alliances in the forthcoming 2025 General elections. This is so because it seems that it is difficult for a single presidential candidate alone to attain 50% +  1 of the cast votes as required by the Malawi Electoral laws.

In fact, I always refer to the 2019 presidential elections because they give us the strength of each individual presidential candidate although they were nullified by the Constitutional Court.

In my view, the results of the 2019  and 2020 presidential elections were statistically and significantly similar.

Without being arachnophobic, let us play with numbers a bit. In the 2019 presidential elections, Prof. Peter Mutharika won with 38.57%  of the cast votes followed by Dr. Lazarus Chakwera with 34.41% while Dr. Saulos Chilima came third with 20.24%. Atupele Muluzi grabbed the fourth position with 4.67% of the cast votes.

Holding other variables constant, when Dr. Lazarus Chakwera formed the Tonse Alliance with Dr. Saulos Chilima during the 2020 fresh presidential elections, people expected  Dr. Lazarus Chakwera to amass at least 54.64% of the cast votes.

Malawians also expected the electoral alliance of Prof. Peter Mutharika and Atupele Muluzi to get at least 43.24% of the cast votes. 

This implies that arithmetically the Tonse Alliance had already a high chance of winning the 2020 fresh presidential elections.

Indeed the results of the 2020 fresh presidential elections showed that Dr. Lazarus Chakwera with Dr. Saulos Chilima emerged the winner with 59.34% of the cast votes, an increase of +4.69% from the projected votes.

It is well known that Prof. Peter Mutharika lost the 2020 fresh presidential elections with 39.92%, a decrease of 3.32% from the projected votes.

These numerical discrepancies from the projected votes were attributed to voter apathy, sympathy votes, Tonse Alliance’s vigorous campaign, and DPP’s unpreparedness for the fresh presidential elections.

All this analysis underscores the importance of numbers when choosing an electoral alliance partner.

It is against this background that this article attempts to expound on the possible electoral alliances in the forthcoming general elections.

Firstly, many Malawians are of the view that all political parties must go solo into the forthcoming general elections.

This is so because Tonse Alliance has proved to be a total dupe and flop. Some parties such as UTM, Umodzi Party, and Aford feel that the MCP  only used them just to ascend to power but they did not benefit much from the alliance.

This is why there are many disgruntled members of the Tonse Alliance such as Bon Kalindo and Dr. Chidanti Malunga who tirelessly fought hard to usher the alliance into government only to be left out in the cold later.

If former President Bingu wa Mutharika managed to attain 50% of the cast votes without any political alliance, what can stop Dr. Lazarus Chakwera or Prof. Peter Mutharika from achieving the same?

After all, if no candidate gets at least 50% + 1  of the cast votes in the first round, there is a provision for the top two presidential candidates to battle it out in the run-off elections.

Secondly, there is another school of thought that the electoral alliances of the 2020 fresh presidential elections be maintained. This implies that the Tonse Alliance must again contest against the DPP-UDF alliance.

However, some quarters recommend that electoral alliance agreements must be legally binding and must strictly conform to the Malawi Constitution. It is expected that this would prevent alliance partners from breaching alliance pacts.

Thirdly, in an attempt to punish MCP for breaching the Tonse Alliance pact, some disgruntled members are of the view that a grand electoral alliance of DPP, UDF, and UTM should be instituted. MCP can therefore partner with other political parties.

Fourthly, since Malawi’s politics is not only about MCP and DPP taking the centre stage, it is, therefore, possible for UTM to become the third popular party by featuring its own presidential candidate and even forming alliances with other parties such as UDF, Umodzi Party, and Aford.

In conclusion, as general elections are drawing close, we expect old electoral alliances to break up while new ones emerge. In politics, almost everything is possible. This is why there are no foes or friends in politics.