By Kenneth Bwanali
In the intense political landscape of Mangochi South West, the incumbent, Shadric Namalomba, must recognize that focusing on the unverified IPOR poll is a waste of precious time.
His re-election will not be decided by what a dubious survey says, but by his direct engagement with the people of his constituency.
The ground is not as firm beneath him as he might believe, and the only path to victory is to address the palpable concerns of the electorate directly.
The upcoming parliamentary election for the Mangochi South West constituency is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable and highly contested races in the country.
Against the backdrop of a tense national political climate, the local contest features a diverse field of candidates, including the incumbent Member of Parliament, Shadric Namalomba of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who faces a formidable challenge from eight other aspirants.
This race is a microcosm of the larger national struggle, with a fragmented voter base and no single candidate holding a clear advantage.
A recent survey, conducted by the political consulting firm “Reality on the Ground” (ROTG), provides a valuable snapshot of the current voter sentiment. Based on a sample of 809 registered voters from the constituency’s total of 37,599, the survey indicates a close contest at the top, where a small shift in voter preference could be decisive in a first-past-the-post system.
The survey results show the following distribution of voter support among the leading candidates:
Justine Majawa (Independent): 179 votes
Shamil Assibu (UDF): 163 votes
Shadric Namalomba (DPP): 136 votes
Hebron Kalasa Chipoka (MCP): 135 votes
Christopher Zenengeya (UTM): 97 votes
The remaining 99 votes are distributed among the other four candidates, highlighting the fragmented nature of the electorate.
The Broader Context: Beyond the Numbers
This fragmented vote distribution underscores a deep-seated voter dissatisfaction that is more about national issues than party loyalty.
The constituency is reflecting a national mood of frustration over a failing economy, high inflation, and pervasive corruption.
Voters are not simply supporting a new leader; they are protesting the political establishment and a system they feel has failed to deliver on its promises.
The poll itself, while providing a useful data point, lacks independent verification of its source.
No publicly available information confirms the existence or credibility of “Reality on the Ground” as a political consulting firm in Malawi. This suggests the data should be viewed as an unverified indicator rather than a definitive forecast.
A Deeper Look at the Candidates
Justine Majawa (Independent): His leading position is the most compelling story of this race. Majawa is a former Member of Parliament, but his current strength appears to be rooted in his philanthropic and community work.
As the founder of a non-profit organization that supports orphans, he has cultivated a reputation as a compassionate and effective local leader.
His success reflects a growing sentiment that voters are prioritizing character and tangible local impact over national party affiliation and brand.
Shamil Assibu (UDF): Shamil Assibu’s second-place showing is a testament to the United Democratic Front’s historical strength and local legacy in the southern region of Malawi.
The UDF has a deep-rooted support base here, and Assibu is likely benefiting from the party’s well-established network. He is also riding the coattails of his party’s national campaign, which appears to be having a tangible impact at the constituency level.
Shadric Namalomba (DPP): The incumbent’s position is precarious. While he is a strong contender, he faces the difficult challenge of campaigning as a sitting Member of Parliament in an environment of widespread anti-incumbency sentiment.
Despite representing the main opposition party, he must still contend with the broader voter fatigue and frustration with the political class as a whole. His re-election will depend on his ability to successfully differentiate his personal record from the national political tide.
Hebron Kalasa Chipoka (MCP): Hebron Kalasa Chipoka, representing the governing Malawi Congress Party, is at a distinct disadvantage.
The MCP has been heavily criticized for its handling of the economy, and the public’s trust has been eroded by a series of corruption scandals.
For Chipoka, the path to victory lies in localizing the race, focusing on his own platform and specific promises to the constituency rather than relying on the national party brand.
The outcome of this election will hinge on which candidate can best capture the significant portion of the electorate that is not tied to a major party.
The 99 votes distributed among the other four candidates will likely serve as the deciding factor, and the candidate who can successfully court even a small portion of this undecided bloc could secure victory.


