By Olusegun Akinfenwa
Events of the past few weeks are clear signals that the two major warring parties, the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), as well as their allies, must heed the call for peace before they plunge the second-most populous country into a Libya-like state. The devastation daily experienced by the affected civilians can best be described as a taste of déjà vu, given that the country went through a similar experience during the Eritrea self-determination fight some decades ago.
The ongoing conflict started in November 2020 when prime minister Abiy Ahmed declared military operations in the Tigray region of the country. This, he said, was done in response to an attack on a military base. The action was a culmination of several months of feuding between the Abiy-led Ethiopian federal authority and TPLF leadership, which could be traced to the long-existing political structure in the country.
Since 1994, Ethiopia has maintained a federal system of government, with different ethnic groups overseeing the political affairs of 10 regions. The TPLF prided itself as one major political force most instrumental in setting up this system. It led the coalition that presided over the country from 1991 following the exit of a military regime. The four-party coalition brought up various developments and stability to Ethiopia, but there were some concerns of human rights violations and suppression.
This discontent would later escalate to a full-blown demonstration that caused a major reshuffle which ushered Abiy Ahmed in as the current prime minister in 2018. Within Abiy’s short term at the helms, he made significant reforms that earned him national and international admiration and accolades, including a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. His reform programmes and liberalised politics saw an end to the long-existing territorial crisis with neighbouring Eritrea.
However, while his popularity grew for those laudable strides, key Tigrayan political leaders who were sidelined by Abiy perceived his style as a move to centralize power. The rancour became escalated in September 2020 after the Tigray region held its regional election in defiance against the federal government’s postponement of national elections.
In its reaction, the federal authority stopped funding to Tigray, a move that the latter considered to be a “declaration of war.” Unfortunately, what began as a power tussle has now led to a devastating conflict with thousands of deaths, forceful displacements, and other humanitarian effects.
As the TPLF rebels drew closer to the capital in late November, PM Abiy travelled to the frontline and pledged to lead Ethiopian troops to battle himself. “We won’t give in until we bury the enemy,” he said.
A spokesperson for TPLF also accused Abiy’s leadership of being a “chokehold on our people” and also promised to continue the rebels’ “inexorable advance.” This adamance from both parties explains why the year-long conflict is biting so hard on civilians.
While the exact humanitarian and economic costs of the crisis are hard to assert, there is glaring evidence of devastatingly worrisome downturns. Thousands of people have been killed. It has also escalated the refugee crisis in East Africa, as over 60,000 people have fled Ethiopia to neighbouring countries, and there are around two million people who are internally displaced.
A joint investigation by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) shows that all parties in the conflict have committed violations that may amount to war crimes.
The report also reveals indiscriminate attacks against the civilian population, appalling gender-based violence against girls and women, as well as other human rights and refugee rights abuses. Over nine million people are said to be in urgent need of humanitarian assistance in the regions of Tigray, Afar, and Amhara. The much-needed aids have also been slow in coming. Sometimes in August, the United States international development agency accused Abiy’s administration of “obstructing” access to the Tigray region at a time food houses were “virtually empty.”
“This shortage is not because food is unavailable, but because the Ethiopian government is obstructing humanitarian aid and personnel, including land convoys and air access,” USAID chief Samantha Power alleged.
In late November, the first humanitarian aid convoy (of around 40 trucks) in more than a month entered the Tigray region. Since then, more than 200 trucks have reached the region, but the United Nations says there is still a need for up to 100 trucks a day to meet the local population’s most basic needs.
There have been calls from the international community for both sides to embrace peace and bring the conflict to an end, but neither seems to be willing to toll the path of peace. Abiy’s body language suggests a suspicion that foreign powers want to remove him, as his administration described efforts by the Western governments as “meddling,” alleging they were trying to defeat Ethiopia. The TPLF also seem to see no value in negotiations, having recently recorded significant wins against the central power.
Abiy’s journey from enviable international acclaim and admiration to condemnation has been swift, and so is Ethiopia’s exceptional status from a peaceful, progressive nation to a war-torn country. Its deep sense of independence as the only uncolonized African nation, recent political reforms, and economic strides make Ethiopia Africa’s pride. Other countries in the horn and continent-wide look up to it for leadership. Its highly ambitious economic growth has also been cited as a model worth emulating by other countries.
But the year-long conflict has significantly battered the country’s economy and affected its political trajectory. Fear also grows that it could become a Libya of East Africa, given that similarities can be drawn between the two nations in terms of economic growth and conflict-induced fall.
Like Ethiopia, Libya was one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies and regarded among the wealthiest countries in the continent until the 2011 uprising that led to a civil war and foreign military intervention. Today, the once oil-rich country is now a shadow of itself, a socioeconomic retarded nation, and a den of human trafficking and modern slavery.
The conflict could also be described as a taste of déjà vu, especially as the recent confrontations took a similar fashion to the Eritrea bloody breakaway from Ethiopia three decades ago (see Total War in Eritrea). Thousands of people were killed, and various other human costs were recorded in the self-determination crisis that lasted between 1961 to 1991.
Both the Ethiopian federal government and TPLF have hitherto shown vigour in the fight and recorded successes against each other. Having come this far, therefore, a compromise from either side this very moment may appear as a sign of weakness to their followers. But considering the already witnessed human tolls and the possible impending turmoil of a Libya-like state, such a compromise should rather be seen as a display of strength and not the other way round. It is high time the two warring parties met at the negotiation tables and reached a peaceful agreement in the interest of the masses and for posterity’s sake.
Olusegun Akinfenwa is a correspondent for Immigration Advice Service, a law firm based in the UK and offering immigration services globally, including the US citizenship and immigration application process. Most of his work revolves around spreading awareness about the harsh socio-political realities confronting African society, with a view to bringing lasting solutions to them.