The figure of 31 percent for Lazarus Chakwera in the recent survey indicates a decline in his support since 2020.
This decline suggests that more Malawians are beginning to doubt a leadership that has failed to deliver on its promises.
Chakwera rose to power in the 2020 Fresh Presidential Election with 58.6 percent of the vote, largely buoyed by a wide political alliance under the Tonse umbrella.
That historic victory created high expectations among Malawians who were eager for change, economic revival, and an end to corruption.
However, four years into his leadership, the optimism that once surrounded his presidency appears to be waning.
Many Malawians now feel that key campaign promises, such as job creation, affordable living, and improved governance, have not been fulfilled.
The declining numbers highlight a shift in public perception, as citizens increasingly measure leaders not by their words but by their ability to deliver tangible results.
With the elections of 2025 drawing closer, this drop in support poses a major challenge for Chakwera and the Malawi Congress Party (MCP).
It also raises questions about whether the ruling party can rebuild trust and mobilize enough support to counter a resurging opposition.
The 31 percent rating signals more than just numbers—it reflects frustration, disillusionment, and a demand for accountability from the people.
Historical parallels in Malawian politics
Malawian politics has a pattern: leaders often sweep into power with broad public support, only to see their popularity decline as expectations collide with reality.
For instance, Bakili Muluzi, who ended the Malawi Congress Party’s one-party dominance in 1994, initially enjoyed widespread support as the face of democracy.
His United Democratic Front (UDF) was seen as a symbol of liberation from authoritarianism. Yet, by the late 1990s, economic mismanagement and corruption scandals eroded his credibility.
Similarly, Bingu wa Mutharika rose to power in 2004 with skepticism but quickly won Malawians’ trust by stabilizing the economy and spearheading agricultural reforms.
His Food Security Program made Malawi a regional model. However, by his second term, accusations of autocracy and corruption weakened his standing.
Joyce Banda’s presidency also followed the same trajectory. Initially praised for stabilizing the economy after Bingu’s sudden death in 2012, her administration was later engulfed in the “Cashgate” scandal.
The corruption scandal not only decimated her popularity but also paved the way for Peter Mutharika’s victory in 2014.
Lazarus Chakwera’s current situation appears to mirror these historical trends.
He entered office with strong goodwill and a unifying message, but public disillusionment is fast eroding the legitimacy that once carried him to victory.
The burden of the Tonse Alliance
Chakwera’s victory in 2020 was not solely a personal triumph. It was the product of the Tonse Alliance—a broad coalition of parties united by a shared mission to remove the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) from power.
While the alliance was effective in securing electoral victory, it also sowed seeds of future governance challenges. Broad coalitions often struggle with policy coherence, patronage demands, and internal power struggles.
Indeed, the Tonse Alliance has been accused of prioritizing political survival over delivering on promises. Citizens who once celebrated unity now feel betrayed by unfulfilled pledges such as the creation of one million jobs, reduced fuel prices, and cheaper fertilizer.
Chakwera’s 31 percent is therefore not simply a reflection of his personal leadership but also a verdict on the entire Tonse project. Malawians are signaling that coalition politics without results is unsustainable.
Comparing Chakwera to his rivals
The survey also sheds light on how Chakwera’s rivals are positioning themselves.
Arthur Peter Mutharika of the DPP, who lost power in 2020, has staged a surprising comeback in opinion polls.
His rating of 41 percent demonstrates that a significant portion of Malawians are reconsidering his track record. Despite criticisms during his tenure, many still credit him with relative economic stability compared to current hardships.
Dalitso Kabambe, leading the United Transformation Movement (UTM), is polling at 6 percent. Though his numbers are modest, his technocratic image and appeal to younger voters could make him a future contender.
Atupele Muluzi of the UDF, with 3 percent, continues to struggle in mobilizing beyond his father’s legacy. Meanwhile, Joyce Banda, with 2 percent, reflects the waning influence of her People’s Party.
Chakwera’s 31 percent, when compared against these figures, highlights both the erosion of his support and the resilience of his chief rival, Mutharika.
The danger of overpromising
One of the key lessons from Chakwera’s leadership is the danger of overpromising. In 2020, his campaign painted a picture of rapid transformation: affordable fertilizer, universal employment opportunities, and drastic reductions in poverty.
Yet, Malawi’s structural economic problems—debt, forex shortages, and dependence on donor aid—made these promises difficult to deliver within a short period.
As inflation soared and unemployment persisted, voters began to feel that the gap between promises and reality was too wide. The frustration has only deepened as corruption scandals continue to surface within the administration, contradicting the promise of clean governance.
Lessons from other african leaders
Chakwera’s decline is not unique to Malawi. Across Africa, leaders who ascend to power through coalitions or reformist platforms often face declining support when change is slower than expected.
In Zambia, Hakainde Hichilema’s 2021 landslide victory brought hope of economic reform. Yet within two years, discontent has begun to surface over rising living costs.
In Kenya, the “handshake” alliance between Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga initially stabilized politics but eventually disappointed voters who felt elite deals replaced genuine reforms.
These examples highlight the universal truth that political trust is fragile and must be constantly renewed through delivery, not promises.
The road to 2025
As Malawi approaches the 2025 general elections, Chakwera’s 31 percent rating is both a warning and an opportunity.
For the ruling party, it is a wake-up call to recalibrate policies, address economic hardship, and restore public trust. For the opposition, it is evidence that the electorate is open to alternatives if they present credible solutions.
The months leading to September 2025 will therefore be decisive. Chakwera must demonstrate tangible progress—whether in economic reforms, infrastructure, or anti-corruption measures—if he is to regain momentum.
Otherwise, history suggests he could join the list of Malawian presidents who began with promise but ended in disappointment.
Conclusion
Chakwera’s falling support underscores the reality that political victories achieved through broad alliances must be sustained through credible performance.
As Malawians prepare for the next election, the message is clear: leadership must be measured by delivery, not promises.
If Chakwera fails to address the growing concerns of the electorate, his weakened support base could cost him dearly at the ballot box.
The 31 percent figure is therefore not just a warning—it is a reminder that the trust of the people is earned through action, not rhetoric.
Malawi’s history has repeatedly shown that leaders who fail to meet expectations are swiftly punished by the electorate.
For Chakwera, the coming months represent his last chance to reverse the tide and prove that his presidency can still deliver meaningful change.
