According to supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), there are three primary reasons why they think President Chakwera can be easily ousted.
These include the economic challenges faced by the people of Malawi during Chakwera’s tenure, unfulfilled promises made by Chakwera, and the controversial handling of Vice President Chilima’s plane crash by the Chakwera administration.
However, the victory of presidential candidates is influenced by a variety of factors, as supported by evidence on the ground.
This article aims to uncover the secrets behind such triumphs.
Firstly, having access to government resources can provide significant advantages in an election. Chakwera is busy utilizing state machinery for campaign purposes, including funding, logistics, and communication channels. These are helping him reach a wider audience and promote his policies effectively.
Secondly, there are indications that the Chakwera’s government has significant influence over key institutions like the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC), Parliament, and the Judiciary among others.
As a matter of fact, many voters are concerned that both the Chairperson, Annabel Mtalimanja and Chief Elections officer, Andrew Mpesi are the sympathisers of the ruling Malawi Congress Party (MCP). If these allegations are true, then they could potentially shape the electoral landscape in President Chakwera’s favour.
In fact, MEC being a public institution intended to operate within the parameters of public trust, it is suspicious that Mtalimanja refused the opposition parties’ proposal for an impartial audit of the electoral management system. It raises questions about what may be concealed within the elections system.
Therefore, Chakwera’s control over MEC might allow for his favourable electoral conditions, such as the management of electoral processes and the handling of disputes.
If opposition parties challenge the outcome of the elections, it is probable that the courts will support Chakwera. This is because the judges who previously invalidated the 2019 presidential elections were rewarded with promotions.
Furthermore , Chakwera administration’s approach of distributing money to canvass votes is controversial but it may be an effective strategy.
According to sources, Chakwera’s administration is allegedly offering monetary rewards or assistance to certain groups of people, including teachers, reporters, and religious leaders who are invited to state residences. This move is believed to potentially influence undecided voters or strengthen the allegiance of existing supporters.
Additionally, due to the dominance of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) in the central region, Chakwera enjoys a solid base of support. Interestingly, this region also has the most registered voters as indicated by the MEC voters roll.
Furthermore, the fragmentation of opposition parties in the Southern region will work to Chakwera’s advantage, as it will dilute the votes that would otherwise go to a single strong opponent.
It is widely known that voters tend to cast their votes based on tribal and regional affiliations. In this scenario, the southern region will see a division of votes among several political parties, namely the United Democratic Front (UDF), Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), People Party (PP), Odya Zake Alibe Mulandu (OZAM), Peoples Development Party (PDP) and United Transformation Movement (UTM), all of which have leaders hailing from the Southern region.
Moreover, the effectiveness of the opposition parties in forming a united force play a critical role in elections.
Regrettably, the decision by DPP to prioritize their own interests and impose a safety net requirement for their presidential and running mate to come from their own party in an alliance has discouraged other opposition parties. This may lead to a scenario where most of them will choose to run independently.
In summary, without a unified opposition, it appears that President Chakwera has a clear advantage in the 2025 presidential race. However, ultimately, it is the voter who will determine the outcome of the election.