Written By Chancellor College Professor Jimmy Namangale
Chancellor College Professor Jimmy Namangale (Professor of Statitsics) writes,
When IPOR was carrying out the study, the atmosphere created by MCP/UTM followers and sympathizers was that of demonizing the DDP side as having a government that marred the elections mainly getting more courage from the outcomes of the concourt and supreme court rulings as well as DPP being rudely referred to as an opportunistic lot eyeing for various covid funds.
Now, exploring the likely human behaviour, the DPP/UDF followers in the survey would be that they would be the most likely to shy out to air their choice that they will vote for DPP/UDF presidential candidate.
Another likely human behavior entails that one who voted for MCP will still likely vote for MCP and likewise the ones who voted for DDP and UDF are likely to vote DDP/UDF in the coming elections. Hence in the IPOR study with the 1,346 respondents, the closest and most realistic are the figures related to those that said they would vote for MCP/UTM as they were the least demonized in various circles.
One can claim then that page 28 of the IPOR report likely reveals that, at the time of the study, which is very close to elections,
MCP/UTM support is very very close to the displayed figures on the bar charts, i.e
79% of the voters for MCP/UTM in the North
72% of the voters for MCP/UTM in the Centre
20% of the voters for MCP/UTM In the South
In the annulled elections, where there was no rigging but the courts found gross irregularities,
UDF presidential candidate had the following votes which tallied well with other parallel CSO structures that observed the elections:
1.1% of the votes for UDF in the North
1.8% of the votes for UDF in the Centre
9.3% of the votes for UDF in the South
While DPP candidate had:
18.7% of the votes for DPP in the North
14.5% of the votes for DPP in the Centre
68.1% of the votes for DPP in the South.
It is very likely that this support from the DPP and UDF of these supporters will not vote MCP/UTM but will stick to DPP/UDF. As said the DPP/UDF followers were likely to respond cautiously in the context of the political environment than MCP/UTM, who were the court victors.
While MCP/UTM has the figures displayed in IPOR report, one may argue that the combined DPP and UDF will be, at the minimum, not be less than
1.1% UDF+ 18.7% DPP = 19.8% North (at the minimum)
1.8% UDF+ 14.5% DPP = 16.3% Centre (at the minimum)
9.3% UDF + 68.1% DPP = 77.4% South (at the minimum)
The IPOR report shows DPP support having declined considerably from the 39% of the votes got on the 2019 election which is very unrealistic. This should be so because of above implied self-perception or demonization of the DPP/UDF side.
One may note that we have had the following numbers of registered voters, who for inevitable reasons (like death, migration, voter apathy) not everyone will vote.
North: 931,229 registered voters
Centre: 2,247,157 registered voters
South: 3,009,259 registered voters
Assuming that every voter will be there then, if MCP/UTM is to get its current IPOR “realistic” support then it will likely get 79% of the votes in the North, 72% of the votes in the Centre and 20% of the votes in the South. This gives the MCP/UTM: 2,951,156 votes for Chakwera
Now suppose DPP/UDF fails (which is unrealistic) to even gain a single vote from UTM supporters, then the MINIMUM this coalition will have is around 19.8% of votes in the North, 16.3% of the votes in the Centre and 77.4% in the South. This gives DPP/UDF, with no gain from UTM votes, a total of:
DPP/UTM: 2,878,858 votes for Mutharika.
The deficit, under the current MCP/UTM current (likely realistic) support and the scenario that DPP/UDF fails (likely unrealistic) to gain even a single vote from UTM, is Chakwera’s projected votes minus Mutharika’s, giving:
Deficit:72,297 for DPP votes to equal MCP votes
This 72,000 or so deficit is likely to be very small since other registered voters are likely not to make it or they moved away or they passed on. It is thus unimaginable that the DPP/UDF campaign so far has not managed to gain such a relatively small deficit from Chilima’s previous one million votes.
So a close scrutiny of the political climate under which IPOR carried out the study and that IPOR study sampled equal number of voters from Centre and South, i.e. 43% each, when in fact the South has more registered voters, the analysis is pointing a finger that the likely side to have more votes on the day using the same IPOR results and human behavior likely to have been there, is the DPP candidate. It may likely be another close contest than IPOR has reported but it does seem DPP has a slightly upper hand to have more votes. The 50+1 may even fail if the third candidate manages to get votes close to the deficit threshold talked about above.
Otherwise, it is very unrealistic to think
Disclaimer :The views expressed in this article are the writer’s, do not reflect the views of the Maravi Post
