The biggest problem facing the Peoples Democratic Party is that it lacks political intelligence. When a party is populated by political wheeler-dealers, there is hardly any way to make a sound judgement.
The PDP has two governorship elections to battle with in Ekiti and Osun states, in June and July this year. The Iyorchia Ayu-led national body and its governors’ forum have not shown any determination to win these two states, but they are already dreaming of winning Lagos. They are building from the top because they love jamborees.
This party thinks they can use the Lagos4Lagos to group to win Lagos, but their leading man, Ayodele Fayose, is secretly hobnobbing with Kayode Fayemi in Ekiti. While the party in the South-West is secretly working to undo the most popular themselves in Osun. Dare Adeleke is plotting against Ademola Adeleke, who actually won the last governorship election but was robbed.
Even when the APC Unity Group alleged a secret deal with Fayoae to produce a weak candidate for the PDP in Ekiti, the principal financier of their party, Nyesom Wike, was still vehemently backing him. Yet, the same Wike is challenging the PDP to do everything to win the 2023 Presidential election. What an irony.
A party that wants to win Osun will think about strengthening it bids and consolidating. A party that is serious about winning Ekiti will not be indulging Fayose to produce a weak and unknown candidate. In 2018, Fayose worked against Dayo Adeyeye, who had the prospect of winning. In 2022, the same Fayose is working against his 2018 candidate, Kolapo Eleka. Political merchandising. But the party cannot understand.
Was the PDP national body aware that, Fayose, through his Oshoko Assembly sold expression of interest to six interested persons for N2million each? He later abandoned them and went for an unwilling Bisi Kolawole (who did not express any interest), the state chairman of the PDP, when he was picked. Is such a party really ready to win in Ekiti?
Osun politics has polarised the Adelekes because some interests support Dare to contest the PDP primaries to deny Demola the ticket. The end game likely provides an opportunity for another aspirant to win. It is sick politics.
In Ekiti, Fayose has plotted serious landmines for the PDP. In Osun, the problem is fast brewing. The only way out for them in Ekiti is likely to use the Anamabra option, using only statutory delegates. Although Fayose still has significant reach in the Ekiti PDP, if he wins the statutory election, the national body and Wike will be exculpated.
Lagos is Bola Tinubu’s hold. It will take the combination of Tsunami and Tornado to dislodge him from Lagos. If Tinubu cannot get the APC Presidential ticket, he will do everything to retain Lagos. A PDP that lacks the political intelligence on Ekiti and Osun is definitely a non-starter in Lagos.
The new NWC of the PDP appears laid back. This is January 2022; there is no indication that they have an effective strategy in place to drive the party to achieve success. A first defeat is already staring Ayu in the face because of Ekiti. They do not know how to tame the erratic Fayose and handle Osun.
The PDP will be making a big mistake thinking the APC National Convention will end up in a fiasco. They have a president they all defer to, and he has the tyrannical instruments to cut anyone to size. Certainly, an unprepared PDP cannot defeat a determined APC. They love power for power and know how it could be sustained.
The country is in bad shape. Ordinarily, people should be talking about alternatives to PDP and APC. They have both mismanaged the country, and their choice of Presidential aspirants are the same old faces who have nothing to offer this country. The people must wake up.
Olalekan Ajibade writes from Ebute Metta, Lagos