As Malawi moves closer to the highly anticipated September 16, 2025, general elections, the central question dominating political discourse is which alliance has the momentum, structure, and public trust to form the next government.
With the adoption of the 50+1 electoral system following the landmark 2020 court-ordered fresh presidential election, no single political party can realistically secure an outright victory without entering into a strategic alliance.
The Tonse Alliance, currently in government and led by President Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP), swept into power in 2020 with broad national support from nine political parties, including UTM, PP, and AFORD.
However, five years later, the Tonse Alliance appears fractured and significantly weakened by internal disagreements, unfulfilled promises, and growing public frustration over economic hardships, persistent corruption, and leadership inertia.
The death of Vice President Dr. Saulos Chilima in June 2024 not only left a leadership vacuum in the United Transformation Movement (UTM) but also strained the coalition’s foundational unity.
There is widespread uncertainty about whether UTM will remain within the Tonse fold or choose to reposition itself independently or with a new partner in the upcoming elections.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), led by former President Peter Mutharika, is regrouping and positioning itself as the alternative to the Tonse-led administration, citing governance failures and economic mismanagement under President Chakwera’s leadership.
Despite being ousted in 2020, the DPP retains a strong support base in the Southern Region and continues to benefit from nostalgia among voters who remember perceived economic stability during its previous administration.
However, the DPP is not without its own challenges, including unresolved leadership disputes and allegations of corruption that continue to haunt its legacy.
Speculation of a potential DPP–UTM alliance has been mounting, particularly among political analysts who argue that such a merger would consolidate Southern and Central Region votes and create a formidable challenge to the MCP.
If the DPP succeeds in bringing UTM onboard — especially if UTM fields a respected and unifying candidate — this coalition could bridge urban-rural divides and increase its chances of surpassing the 50% threshold required for a first-round win.
The Malawi Congress Party (MCP), despite internal fatigue and public discontent, remains a major contender, particularly due to its entrenched structures, rural outreach, and historical presence in the Central Region.
Whether President Chakwera seeks a second term or endorses a successor within MCP, the party’s fortunes will depend heavily on how it addresses economic grievances, youth unemployment, and rural poverty during the remaining campaign period.
Smaller parties such as the United Democratic Front (UDF), Peoples Party (PP), and Alliance for Democracy (AFORD) will likely play the role of kingmakers, depending on which side they throw their support.
In 2020, these smaller parties were instrumental in tipping the electoral balance in favour of Tonse, and their allegiances this time will be closely watched by both political strategists and voters.
According to the 2024 Afrobarometer survey, a growing number of Malawians are disillusioned with party politics and more interested in issue-based leadership that promises job creation, better healthcare, education reforms, and stronger anti-corruption measures.
This shift means that any alliance, regardless of size or history, must now present a credible, inclusive, and policy-driven agenda that resonates with voters across generational and regional lines.
Furthermore, the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) has announced that voter registration turnout has been highest in urban and peri-urban centers, suggesting that alliances with strong urban appeal — such as UTM and emerging youth-led movements — may hold an advantage if they mobilize effectively.
As the campaign period intensifies, all major parties and alliances are expected to unveil their manifestos, finalize running mates, and court endorsements from influential civil society figures and traditional leaders.
In the end, the political alliance that can demonstrate unity, present clean leadership, mobilize resources, and inspire confidence in both the rural and urban electorate stands the best chance of forming the next government.
Whether that alliance is a rebranded Tonse, a resurrected DPP-led coalition, or a newly forged force involving UTM and emerging parties remains to be seen — but the battle lines are clearly being drawn.
September 16 will not only determine Malawi’s next president, but it will also define the direction the nation takes as it faces economic recovery, democratic deepening, and post-crisis rebuilding.
In this unpredictable and high-stakes election, alliances are not just political arrangements — they are the vehicles through which Malawians will express their hope, frustration, and vision for the future.
