By Cedrick Ngalande
Wall Street analysts often use a process called ‘fundamental analysis’ to determine the real value of a stock. A stock can be overpriced or underpriced on the market for a lot of reasons. Thus, before making any buy or sell decision on a stock, an astute trader would want to know the real value of the stock. Fundamental analysis allows analysts to keep the noise out and just focus on basic facts.
In any form of analysis, it is always important to get down to the basics – the fundamentals.
Just like in investment and portfolio management, a form of ‘fundamental analysis’ is also crucial to voters in any democracy. Voters need to go to the basics to really access the real performance of their political leaders. Politicians are good at kicking up a lot of dust and confusion in order to mislead voters into voting for them. Tonse alliance – the ruling coalition in Malawi – is no different.
Disastrous presidential trip to the UK
The disastrous presidential trip to the UK, the cringy BBC interview, and the recent corruption allegations have all been a rude reality check to the alliance. They now know that losing the presidency in 2025 is no longer just an idea of a fanatical DPP supporter.
A strategy that appears to have been devised is to claim success even when there is none in sight. So, the country is being told that things are looking up; that the economy is changing for the better, and that citizens are happier.
Are Malawians better off today than they were in 2019? The numbers are in, and as the cliché goes – numbers do not lie.
Commodity Price Hikes
When DPP left the government, the basic household cooking oil was at K1,100. Today the same bottle costs K2,000.00, representing almost a 100% increase in just over a year! The majority of people in Malawians have no jobs; they live in villages depending on subsistent farming. This increase in price has simply increased their poverty. It’s not as if they have a salary that can be increased.
Kitchen salt 20kg was at K3,500 in 2020, today it is at K4,500. A dozen of washing/bathing soap was at K6,000, now it is K7,500. Laundry soap – Ufresh – was at K100, now it is double that price. Even sugar, a commodity processed locally and very popular in Malawian households, has seen a 14% increase in price.
The numbers speak for themselves. The people of Malawi are being crushed. Whatever the Tonse Alliance is cooking is certainly not working. Malawians cannot wait any longer. They are worse off today than they were when the Tonse people took over. It is likely that this unfortunate trend will continue all the way to 2025. The government has lost the plot.
This, they cannot spin.