BRASILIA-(MaraviPost)-Brazil’s presidential race has entered a fiercely competitive phase, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro separated by only a narrow margin in the latest surveys ahead of the October 4 first round.
Fresh polling shows the two leading contenders effectively level in simulated second-round contests, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding a race that could be decided only after a runoff on October 25 if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round.
Al Jazeera’s latest report, drawing on Reuters and newly released Brazilian polling, puts the contest under a microscope as Lula seeks a fourth non-consecutive presidential term while Flávio Bolsonaro campaigns as the leading figure of the political right.
The report highlights the increasingly narrow gap between the two rivals as election day approaches.
The September 21 BTG Pactual/Nexus poll gives Lula 40 percent in the first-round scenario, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 37 percent, while a hypothetical runoff puts Lula at 46 percent against Bolsonaro’s 45 percent; the survey of 2,006 people has a two-point margin of error.
A separate Quaest survey also places Lula ahead in the first round, with 37 percent against Bolsonaro’s 33 percent, but reverses the order in a simulated runoff, where Bolsonaro has 42 percent and Lula 41 percent — a difference within the poll’s two-point margin of error.
The latest figures represent a significant tightening compared with earlier polling, when Lula held a wider advantage in some runoff scenarios, although both surveys now point to a contest in which the margins are too small to establish a definitive lead.
Lula, who launched his campaign in August, has placed national sovereignty, social programmes and Brazil’s response to international pressure at the centre of his political message, while US tariffs imposed on Brazilian products have become an additional point of tension during the campaign.
The president was in New York for the United Nations General Assembly, where he warned against foreign interference in Brazil’s electoral process and stressed the importance of protecting the country’s democratic institutions.
Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is seeking to consolidate support on the political right as the campaign enters its final stretch.
Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court has formally approved both Lula’s and Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacies, while the electoral authority has confirmed October 4 for the first round and October 25 for a possible runoff.
With less than two weeks before Brazilians vote, the latest surveys show a contest defined by exceptionally narrow margins rather than a settled outcome, leaving the first round and any potential runoff as the decisive stages of the 2026 presidential election.
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