By Burnett Munthali
LUSAKA- (MaraviPost)– The question facing Zambia ahead of the 13 August 2026 general election is whether the opposition can end President Hakainde Hichilema’s bid for a second term.
On paper, Hichilema enters the race with significant advantages that have made him look “mighty” to both allies and rivals.
He is running on a platform of continuity anchored on free primary and secondary education, an increased Constituency Development Fund, and improved economic fundamentals.
His administration has also set ambitious targets of 10 million metric tonnes of maize and 3 million tonnes of copper to drive jobs and growth.
Incumbency gives him unmatched visibility, state resources, and the ability to campaign in every district from Chitambo to Kalabo.
The UPND’s message is simple: protect the progress made since 2021 and do not return to the political violence that marred places like Serenje before his election.
That message has resonated in rural areas where CDF projects and free education are visible.
However, the strength of an incumbent does not automatically translate into an unassailable victory.
The opposition’s central challenge is fragmentation.
The Electoral Commission of Zambia has cleared 26 presidential candidates for the ballot.
The two most prominent challengers are Brian Mundubile of the Tonse Alliance and Fred M’membe of the Socialist Party running under the People’s Pact.
Without a single consolidated candidate, the anti-UPND vote risks being divided across multiple platforms.
Recent mobilization shows the opposition is not dormant.
On 5 July, Mundubile and Makebi Zulu held a heavily attended “mega rally” in Kasama aimed at reclaiming the Northern Province.
In Lundazi, Tonse Alliance MP Brenda Nyirenda led a mobilization that ended in a clash with UPND supporters, underscoring how heated the contest has become.
But rallies do not automatically convert to 50%+1 of the national vote.
Another pressure point for the ruling party is the surge of independent candidates.
There are about 184 independents on the ballot, many of them former UPND members who lost party primaries but retain strong local followings.
That number, compared to 226 UPND candidates and 155 from NRPUP, signals internal dissatisfaction with candidate selection.
In Western Province, Hichilema himself has urged voters to back “unpopular” UPND candidates, an admission that the party faces rebellion from within its base.
Economic issues will also decide the outcome.
Voters are asking hard questions about jobs, food prices, and the cost of living despite government claims of recovery.
If the opposition can unify its messaging around those kitchen-table concerns, it can exploit discontent.
The political climate remains tense, with localized altercations reported and security agencies deployed to hotspots.
Credibility and peace will matter on polling day, and any perception of violence could hurt the party blamed for it.
Turnout will be decisive.
Of Zambia’s more than 21 million people, about 8.7 million are registered to vote.
An Afrobarometer survey shows 86% of Zambians still believe elections are the best way to choose leaders, which suggests high civic engagement.
In my analysis, Hichilema begins as the favorite because of incumbency, organization, and deliverables voters can see.
But “mighty” is not the same as “unbeatable.”
If the opposition fails to unite, the UPND is likely to secure another term, though possibly with a thinner parliamentary majority due to independents.
If Tonse Alliance, the People’s Pact, and other forces find a way to coordinate behind one or two faces in the final 39 days, this race becomes genuinely competitive.
Ultimately, 13 August will test whether Zambians vote for continuity or for change, and whether the opposition can turn regional anger into a national winning coalition.
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