As the official political campaign period in Malawi draws to a close tomorrow morning at exactly six o’clock, it is crucial to reflect on the barrage of election surveys that have flooded the public space.
In these final hours, Malawians deserve nothing less than clarity and professionalism, yet what we have witnessed is a disturbing mix of credible research and outright charlatanism.
The hard truth is that amidst this sea of data, only one organization stands tall with integrity, expertise, and a proven track record — the Institute of Public Opinion and Research (IPOR).
The hard truth is that IPOR is a beacon of professionalism in Malawi’s research landscape. Founded in 2014 and based in Zomba, IPOR has consistently delivered high-quality, independent research that genuinely promotes societal well-being.
Their commitment to excellence and ethical standards is unmatched in the country. Operating under the Business Names Registration Act (Cap.46:02), IPOR has become synonymous with reliability and credibility.
Their mission is clear: to produce transformative insights that inform policy and improve lives, especially in developing countries like Malawi.
The hard truth is that IPOR’s work speaks volumes about their professionalism.
They have conducted groundbreaking projects such as the Malawi Longitudinal Schools Survey (MLSS), which partners with the World Bank and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO) to ensure equal access to safe learning environments for primary school children.
Their Resiliency Project, done in collaboration with the Governance and Local Development Institute (GLD), provided vital data on community governance and welfare during the Covid-19 pandemic, shedding light on poverty and inequality challenges.
These are not trivial endeavors; they require rigorous methodology and ethical rigor — qualities IPOR embodies.
The hard truth is that when it comes to opinion polls, IPOR’s surveys set the gold standard.
Their pre-election survey ahead of the September 2025 general elections showed former President Peter Mutharika leading with 43% of the vote, followed by incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera at 26%. The survey accurately pinpointed corruption as a top voter concern, with 49% backing a candidate committed to fighting graft.
This level of nuance and insight comes only from meticulous research and adherence to scientific principles. IPOR’s results are grounded in robust sampling, precise data analysis, and unbiased reporting.
Now, contrast this with the laughable attempt by Shyly Kondowe, the presidential advisor, who dared to produce a survey that is nothing short of a disgrace to the profession. The hard truth is that Kondowe’s so-called survey reads like a Standard 8 composition — riddled with elementary errors and glaring inaccuracies.
Presenting Mutharika’s bodyguard Norman Chisale as a candidate for MCP in Bwanje Ntcheu is not just a mistake; it is a slap in the face to every Malawian who values truth.
Inventing a presidential candidate named Peter Munthali, who does not exist, exposes the childishness and lack of seriousness behind this document.
Kondowe’s attempt to counter IPOR’s professional surveys is laughable and utterly futile. The hard truth is that such shoddy work only serves to confuse voters and degrade the political discourse.
If Kondowe’s survey was a bad joke, the recent survey by the International Institute for Research and Development (IIRD Africa) is a deliberate insult to Malawians’ intelligence.
The hard truth is that this survey, which bizarrely predicts an MCP landslide victory with 56.5% support, reeks of manipulation and bias.
The authors, Dr. Kennedy Luwegha and Professor Dyson Kajani, present a narrative that conveniently favors the ruling party, ignoring the complex realities on the ground. This survey’s methodology and funding sources remain suspiciously opaque, raising questions about its independence.
The hard truth is that these so-called researchers appear to be sponsored agents, peddling propaganda rather than genuine research.
The hard truth is that the IIRD Africa survey’s claim of MCP commanding over 4 million votes and crushing opposition parties is not supported by any credible evidence.
Their assertion that the DPP’s support is heavily concentrated in the South while MCP dominates the Central and Northern regions oversimplifies Malawi’s diverse political landscape.
Moreover, their emphasis on voter priorities like the economy, food security, and corruption feels like a desperate attempt to legitimize skewed results.
The hard truth is that this survey does not exist in the realm of serious political analysis; it is a contrived narrative designed to mislead.
The hard truth is that Malawi must reject these bogus surveys and stand firmly behind IPOR’s findings.
IPOR’s professionalism, transparency, and commitment to ethical research make their results the only trustworthy guide in this election. Their work is backed by real data, rigorous methods, and respected partnerships with global institutions like the World Bank and FCDO.
To give credence to the likes of Kondowe’s childish errors or IIRD Africa’s questionable motives is to betray the very essence of democratic choice.
The hard truth is that Malawi deserves better. As voters prepare to cast their ballots, they must see through the smoke and mirrors created by these discredited surveys.
The hard truth is that IPOR’s research reflects the reality of Malawi’s political and social landscape — a reality shaped by informed citizens demanding accountability, economic progress, and an end to corruption.
To the authors of those rubbish surveys, the hard truth is this: your attempts to distort facts and manipulate public opinion will not stand. Your work is not research; it is propaganda. Your errors and biases are transparent to all who value truth and integrity.
Malawi’s future belongs to those who uphold professionalism and honesty, and IPOR remains the gold standard in this critical moment.
As the campaign period ends, Malawians must recognize the hard truth — the only credible, dependable, and professional election survey comes from IPOR. Their tireless dedication to research excellence is what democracy in Malawi needs to thrive.
Reject the noise, the childish compositions, and the sponsored fabrications. Trust in IPOR, and let the people’s informed voice guide the nation forward.
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Email: jonesgadama@gmail.com
