By Burnett Munthali
The United Transformation Movement (UTM) has downplayed the Afrobarometer survey released on December 6, 2024, which places the party at the bottom of voter preferences for next year’s presidential elections. According to the survey, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is projected to win with 43% support, the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) follows at 29%, and the UTM lags with a mere 7%. Despite this bleak outlook, UTM officials insist they are poised to secure a surprising victory.
The Afrobarometer survey indicates a dramatic decline in UTM’s popularity, a stark contrast to its strong showing during the formation of the Tonse Alliance in 2020. Many respondents attributed the drop to dissatisfaction with UTM’s perceived inability to deliver on its promises, coupled with frustrations about Vice President Saulos Chilima’s performance in the Tonse administration.
The findings suggest that UTM faces a daunting task of reversing public discontent, with many voters seemingly turning to the DPP and MCP as their preferred choices.
Addressing the media in Lilongwe, UTM spokesperson Felix Njawala dismissed the survey results, claiming they do not reflect the party’s actual support on the ground. “Polls are merely snapshots of perception, not a determinant of election outcomes. UTM has faced skeptics before, and we will prove them wrong again,” Njawala stated confidently.
He added that the party has initiated robust engagement efforts at the grassroots level to reconnect with the electorate and demonstrate its transformative agenda. “Malawians are tired of recycled leadership. UTM represents the future, and we will show this in our campaign,” he said.
With only months left before the elections, UTM has vowed to intensify its campaign efforts by focusing on key issues such as job creation, anti-corruption, education reforms, and economic empowerment for the youth.
Njawala argued that the party’s innovative policies and Vice President Chilima’s leadership remain central to UTM’s appeal. “We are the only party offering real solutions to Malawi’s challenges. While others thrive on populism, we are committed to tangible change,” he remarked.
Meanwhile, the DPP has welcomed the survey results, with spokesperson Shadreck Namalomba describing them as a “reflection of the public’s desire for a return to stable and visionary leadership.” Similarly, the MCP has downplayed its second-place position, pledging to intensify its efforts to retain power.
Political commentators are divided on UTM’s chances. Dr. Emily Kamwana, a governance expert, noted that while Afrobarometer surveys offer valuable insights, they are not definitive predictors of election results. “Elections are dynamic, and a strong campaign can change public sentiment quickly,” she said.
However, other analysts argue that UTM faces an uphill battle, especially with such a low baseline of support. “Recovering from 7% is a monumental task. UTM must address the concerns that led to this decline, including its role in the Tonse Alliance’s perceived failures,” said Dr. Henry Kachaje, a political analyst.
Despite the challenges, UTM remains optimistic about its prospects. The party has pledged to address voter concerns head-on and to campaign on a platform of hope and transformation. As Njawala put it, “This is not the first time we’ve been underestimated. The 2025 elections will surprise many, and UTM will emerge as the people’s choice.”
As the political season heats up, all eyes will be on whether UTM can defy the odds and reclaim its position as a significant contender in Malawi’s political landscape.
