By Burnett Munthali
MaraviPost Election Projection
LUSAKA, Zambia — President Hakainde Hichilema is on course for re-election in Zambia’s 2026 presidential election, according to an assessment by Maravi Post based exclusively on the latest results released by the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ).
ECZ results from 192 of Zambia’s 226 constituencies show Hichilema with 2,430,702 votes, while his closest challenger, Brian Mundubile, has 1,461,457 votes.
The figures give Hichilema a 969,245-vote lead, with results from 34 constituencies still outstanding.
Maravi Post projection
Based on the ECZ results available so far, Maravi Post projects Hakainde Hichilema as the likely winner of the 2026 Zambian presidential election, with the incumbent on course to secure a second term without a runoff.
The projection takes into account the size of Hichilema’s numerical advantage, the number of constituencies already declared and the limited number of constituencies yet to report.
Mundubile would need to overcome a deficit of nearly one million votes in the remaining 34 constituencies while Hichilema would continue to receive votes from the same outstanding areas.
The scale of the existing gap makes a reversal increasingly difficult based on the results available from the ECZ.
Zambia’s presidential electoral system requires a candidate to secure more than 50 percent of valid votes to win in the first round. If no candidate reaches that threshold, a runoff is held between the top two candidates.
The official result remains pending
The Maravi Post projection should not be confused with an official declaration.
The Electoral Commission of Zambia remains the sole authority responsible for completing the tally, verifying the results and formally declaring the presidential winner.
Maravi Post will therefore continue to describe Hichilema as the projected or likely winner until the ECZ announces the final result.
Maravi Post projection
Projected winner: Hakainde Hichilema
Projected outcome: First-round victory and re-election
ECZ results assessed: 192 of 226 constituencies
Hichilema: 2,430,702 votes
Brian Mundubile: 1,461,457 votes
Current lead: 969,245 votes
Constituencies outstanding: 34
Projection confidence: Very high
Official result: Pending ECZ declaration
On the basis of the ECZ figures available at the time of publication, Maravi Post assesses Hakainde Hichilema as the highly likely winner of Zambia’s 2026 presidential election.
This is a Maravi Post newsroom projection based on ECZ-reported results. It is not an official election declaration.
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