By Lovemore Lubinda
LUSAKA, Zambia — Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema has opened a commanding 515,478-vote lead over challenger Brian Mundubile, with the Electoral Commission of Zambia having announced results from 135 of 226 constituencies.
According to ECZ figures released on Sunday night, Hichilema of the United Party for National Development has 1,546,140 votes, or about 58.9%. Mundubile of the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity has 1,030,662 votes, or about 39.3%. The remaining votes went to other presidential candidates. Ninety-one constituencies are still outstanding.
A close race in seats, a wide gap in votes
The constituency tally is tight. Hichilema has won 69 of the declared seats, Mundubile 66.
But Zambia’s presidential election is decided by the national popular vote, not by the number of seats won. And in vote totals, the gap is significant.
Hichilema’s largest margins are in Southern, Western and North-Western provinces. Southern has given him 597,665 votes to Mundubile’s 20,644. North-Western delivered 125,798 to 4,265. Western produced 140,243 to 3,894.
Mundubile has dominated in parts of the east and north. He leads in Eastern Province 307,103 to 162,871, and in Luapula 141,193 to 61,289.
Where the remaining votes are
The outstanding 91 constituencies are spread across the country: Copperbelt 20, Western 15, Central 11, North-Western 11, Northern 9, Lusaka 8, Luapula 6, Southern 5, Eastern 4, and Muchinga 2.
That distribution matters. Many of Mundubile’s strongest regions are already largely counted. Eastern has reported 25 of 29 seats, Muchinga 12 of 14, and Luapula 14 of 20.
In contrast, only 8 of 19 constituencies in North-Western and 11 of 26 in Western have been declared — both areas where Hichilema has posted his biggest margins so far.
What it means
To win, Mundubile would need to not only carry most of the remaining seats, but win them by unusually large margins to erase Hichilema’s half-million vote advantage.
With results still to come from the Copperbelt and Lusaka, both heavily populated provinces, the commission says counting will continue over the next 48 hours.
Zambia, a copper-rich nation of about 20 million people in southern Africa, has a history of closely watched elections. International observers are monitoring the process as final results are tabulated.
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